نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران (نویسنده مسئول).
چکیده
در سالهای اخیر، تعداد زیادی از محققان به دنبال شناخت انگیزه های واقعی سیاست گذاران در واکنش به توسعه اقتصادی هستند. ادله آنها این است که سیاست پولی از یک فرآیند سیستماتیک پیروی می کند که از طریق رجحان های مقامات پولی در راستای دستیابی به اهداف معین، هدایت می شوند.هدف این مطالعه، تعیین حالت پایدار قاعده ی سیاست پولی بهینه، با بهره گیری از روش کنترل بهینه برای تمام نسل هاست. برای حصول این امر، اندازه گیری پول در نظریه ی کنترل بهینه بسیار مهم و حیاتی است. خروجی دقیق این اندازه گیری حذف تورم از اقتصاد برای تمامی نسل هاست. اندازه گیری پول در علم اقتصاد تفاوت بنیادینی با سایر اندازه گیری ها، از قبیل تولید، اشتغال، مصرف و ....دارد. آن هم این است که پول، متغیر انباره است. یک متغیر انباره، دارای بعد زمانی نیست. در حالی که متغیر جریان(روانه)،بعد زمانی دارد. به عبارتی مفهوم روانه، باید در هر لحظه از زمان تعریف شود. در صورتی که متغیر انباره، باید در یک لحظه از زمان اندازه گیری شود. به عبارتی برای یک لحظه از زمان، برای تمامی زمان ها اندازه گیری می شود. تفاوت بنیادین انباره و روانه در واحد اندازه گیری است. واحد اندازه گیری روانه در طول زمان(واحد در زمان) تعریف می شود. واحد اندازه گیری انباره، خالی از زمان است. در نتیجه برای متغیر های انباره رشد و یا مشتق تعریف نمی شود. به عبارتی رشد پول، بی معناست. یا تغیرات حجم پول، بی معناست. بلکه سطح برای متغیر انباره تعریف می شود. به زبان ریاضی برای متغیر انباشت، انتگرال تعریف می شود، نه مشتق و یا تغییرات. یعنی مشتق پول، همیشه صفر است. در ریاضیات، انتگرال (به فرانسوی: Integral)، روشی برای اختصاص اعداد به توابع است. یعنی در علم اقتصاد پول، انتگرال ارزش است، نه مشتق ارزش. آن چیزی که سبب روانه شدن پول در فرایند مبادله در علم اقتصاد می شود، سرعت گردش پول است. لکن خود پول انباره است. تفکیک بین پول و سرعت گردش پول مهم است. به عبارتی تعریف معادله حرکت برای پول خطاست. لکن برای سرعت گردش پول، معادله حرکت تعریف می شود. یعنی متغیر کنترلی پول نیست، لکن سرعت گردش پول متغیر کنترلی است. به طوری که با افزایش سرعت گردش پول،رشد اقتصادی افزایش پیدا می کند. در نتیجه تعادل پول برای تمامی نسل ها ایستاست. در صورتی که تعادل سرعت گردش پول، پویاست. در نتیجه قاعده ی سیاست بهینه یول به این صورت می باشد: تشکیل منبع عمومی پول در طول زمان برای تمامی نسل ها.به طوری که مالکیت این منبع عمومی، عمومی است. در نتیجه عمل تامین پول از این منبع برای تمامی نسل ها به صورت عقد قرض الحسنه است. به عبارتی در نظریه ی کنترل بهینه، منبع عمومی پول نقش کنترل کننده ی سیستم اقتصادی را بر عهده دارد. یعنی کنترل تورم فقط و فقط از طریق منبع عمومی برای تمامی نسل ها امکان پذیر است. در این صورت است که تعادل اقتصاد کلان، برای تمامی نسل ها، یک تعادل پایدار است. زیرا تعادل پول در طی زمان، تعادل ایستاست. زیرا پول، ارزش زمانی ندارد. زیرا پول، بعد زمان ندارد. در نتیجه زمانی که برای اولین بار، پول برای فرایند مبادله در علم اقتصاد اعتبار می شود، برای همیشه در فرایند مبادله وجود دارد. یعنی طول عمر پول، بی نهایت است. به عبارتی، نیازی به خلق پول نیست. یعنی رشد نقدینگی در طی زمان صفر است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
The Optimal Rule of Monetary Policy Using the Theory of Optimal Control: Stable Equilibrium of Money
نویسنده [English]
- Noorollah Salehi Asfiji
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]
In recent years, a large number of researchers seek to understand the real motives of policymakers in response to economic development. Their evidence is that monetary policy follows a systematic process that is guided through the preferences of monetary authorities in order to achieve certain goals. The purpose of this study is to determine the stable state of the optimal monetary policy rule, using the method Optimal control for all generations. To achieve this, measuring money in optimal control theory is very important and vital. The exact output of this measurement is the removal of inflation from the economy for all generations. Money measurement in economics is fundamentally different from other measurements, such as production, employment, consumption, etc. It is that money is a warehouse variable. A storage variable does not have a time dimension. While the flow variable has a time dimension. In other words, the concept of running must be defined at every moment of time. If the warehouse variable, it must be measured at a moment in time. In other words, it is measured for a moment of time, for all times. The fundamental difference between storage and delivery is in the measurement unit. The unit of measurement is defined over time (unit in time). The warehouse measurement unit is empty of time. As a result, it is not defined for growth or derivative storage variables. In other words, money growth is meaningless. Or changes in the amount of money are meaningless. Rather, the level is defined for the warehouse variable. In mathematical language, for the accumulation variable, the integral is defined, not the derivative or the variation. That is, the derivative of money is always zero. In mathematics, integral (in French: Integral) is a method of assigning numbers to functions. That is, in economics, money is the integral of value, not the derivative of value. What causes money to flow in the exchange process in economics is the speed of money circulation. But money itself is a warehouse. It is important to distinguish between money and the velocity of money. In other words, the definition of the equation of motion for money is wrong. But for the speed of money circulation, the equation of motion is defined. That is, the control variable is not money, but the speed of money circulation is the control variable. So that with the increase in the speed of money circulation, the economic growth increases. As a result, the balance of money is static for all generations. If the balance of the speed of money circulation is dynamic. As a result, Yule's optimal policy rule is as follows: the formation of a public source of money over time for all generations, so that the ownership of this public resource is public. As a result, the act of providing money from this source for all generations is in the form of a loan agreement. In other words, in the theory of optimal control, the public source of money has the role of controller of the economic system. That is, inflation control is only possible through public resources for all generations. In this case, the macroeconomic balance is a stable balance for all generations. Because the balance of money over time is a static balance. Because money has no time value. Because money has no time. As a result, when money is first credited to the exchange process in economics, it exists forever in the exchange process. That is, the lifetime of money is infinite. In other words, there is no need to create money. That is, the growth of liquidity over time is zero.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- ارزش
- اندازه گیری پول
- قاعده ی سیاست پولی بهینه
- عقد قرض الحسنه
- منبع عمومی پول و نظریه ی کنترل بهینه
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